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Today, "after the finish" of 2015-2016 marketing year, we can state that the production volumes of the main oilseeds and their processing products show a significant growth, which invariably leads to increase of the country's export potential. For example, according to the calculations of APK-Inform, the total storage capacity of Ukrainian stations dealing with vegetable oil shipment will increase from 0.85 million to 0.95 million tons this season. Focus on export is the main feature of the industry; today 13% of all Ukrainian exports refer to vegetable oils. Starting from 2005, oil-bearing seeds processing capacities increase annually, on average, by 1 million tons.
 
The fat-and-oil complex of Ukraine is a powerful sector of agricultural production, with established balance of economic interests of the state, agricultural and processing industries and domestic consumer, which is due to the export duty on sunflower seeds.

According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, the production of the main types of oilseeds in the primary weight in 2016 was 18.7 million tons, including: sunflower - 13.5 million tons, soybean - 4.1 million tons, rape - 1.1 million tons.

The concern is caused by the reduction of soybean and especially rapeseed oil production (by 36%), due to the mass export of rapeseed and soybean, although processing capacities for these crops have significantly increased in recent years. Thus, soybean processing capacities reached 3.5 million tons/year, rapeseed — more than 2.0 million tons/year. However, due to mass exports of soybeans, the domestic capacities load does not exceed even 30%.

"Over the past ten years the production of oilseeds in Ukraine increased by more than twice, despite the fact that domestic consumption remained at the same level, i.e., about 500-600 thousand tons." According to Agritel estimates, further increase is expected in the oilseeds acreage, due to the reduction of wheat areas, and the increase of soybean and rapeseed acreage. By the results of 2015, Ukraine occupied the 8th place in the world for soybean growing and the 6th for its export. Soybean production and sale are a highly profitable and fast-payback business. It explains the more than tenfold increase in sowing of this culture in Ukraine over the past 12 years. Ukraine takes the first place in Europe in terms of soybean production, while significantly seconding other countries in terms of yield.

Amount of exported fat and oil products in 2016 equaled to USD 4.8 billion as compared to USD 4.2 billion in 2015 (growth is 114%). The specific weight of exports of fat and oil products in the total export of goods from Ukraine is 13%, in the export of agricultural products it is 30%, in the export of food products it is 70%.

Source: State Statistics Service of Ukraine, APK-Inform



World production and consumption of soybean in 2016/17 MY
 
Due to the improved weather conditions in South America, global soybean production is projected to be 2 million tons higher than before, by 21 million tons more (+ 7%) than last year and will thus reach a historic level of 340 million tons. It was reported by Expert Agro with the reference to the data of the February report of the International Grains Council (IGC).

In addition to record harvests in the USA and Brazil, improvement of production is expected among a number of smaller producers, including China, India and Ukraine.

The inter-monthly production increment was mainly reflected in the increase of general use indicator, and the estimate of reserves at the end of the season was slightly reduced. Consumption is projected to achieve a new record level, associated with the further increase in demand for soy products.

Nevertheless, the volume of reserves is expected to increase by 8%, i.e., up to 35 million tons, as the intensive accumulation of reserves in the USA compensates the decline in other regions. Since the vast supply of soybean at competitive prices shall ensure a steady demand from key buyers across Asia, the trade forecast is increased to a record 139 million tons, which is 3% more than last year.
Under the influence of the expected increase in the volume of industrial processing in conditions of a stable demand for high-protein meals, the global trade of soybean meal is forecast to reach a new peak level of about 64 million tons.

In response to the growing need in protein food among the world's population, farmers annually increase soybean acreage. Soy is a source of high-grade protein, which can compensate the shortage of meat, fish, milk or eggs. Soybean meal is used as a high protein food at livestock and poultry farms; as well as raw materials for biofuel production. Taking into account the above, the demand for soybeans and processing products is unquestionable.




World balance of soybeans:








Production of meal. Ranking of countries




USDA forecast